Catchment and Capacity (plus the Duchess Park issue)

As many people know, Duchess Park is facing capacity issues, and some solutions have been proposed. There needs to be more work before a real solution is found, and as a trustee, I would want to make sure that any decisions reached are solutions that work for the district as a whole, use supportable data, allow people have informed opinions during consultation, ensure that any decisions are educationally sound, have the least possible disruption to our children, ideally keep families together, and ensure that the entire process is a respectful one – where people can see and trust the decision-making process.

Back in June 2018, I made this presentation to Duchess Park parents, to provide people with background around the capacity issues at Duchess Park:

2018 June 11 Information Session – Duchess Park PAC

There’s two slides in particular I think are helpful for looking at capacity issues in the school district as a whole:

What we have there are years of declining enrollments, followed by an upswing in elementary school enrollments – and finally, we’re also seeing an increase in secondary school enrollments.

I also made a presentation to the board in June, updating some of the projection numbers with a revised methodology:

Capacity is something that has long been an intrest of mine – for example, you can see some analysis here, using data from 2015-16:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/sarahholland#!/vizhome/SD57-EnrolmentComparisons/EnrolmentComparisons

I think one of the earliest documents was this one, from January 2012:

http://sd57dpac.ca/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Short-version-Enrolment-History-and-Projections-jan-23-2012.pdf